Dennis Lindley Quotes
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Generally there is Stigler's law of eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person; in particular, the law is not due to Stigler.
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It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility.
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Consider the case of a person who holds a view with probability 1. Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because nothing will change their mind.
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It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty.
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In teaching there can be too much emphasis on certainty and a proper appreciation of uncertainty is to be encouraged.
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Utility is the emotion pleading to be let into the house of pure reason and thereby enriching it.
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I believe that almost all important, useful ideas are simple. Peter Whittle has recently put it nicely in an autobiographical essay. "If a piece of work is heavy and complicated then it is wrong." . . . Some writers feel that to express their ideas in simple terms is degrading. Some use complexity to disguise the paucity of their material. In fact, simplicity is a virtue and when, as here, it is both original and useful, it can represent a real advance in knowledge.
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The grand assertion is that you must see the world through probability and that probability is the only guide you need.
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Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty.
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Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.
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In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe anything on the authority of a single person but seek confirmation - and reason is the best confirmation.
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Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.
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