Daniel Kahneman Quotes About Overconfidence
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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